Rising Equity Glide Path Retirement 2027 Calculator
The Pfau-Kitces rising-equity glide path starts retirement at low stock allocation (~30%) and increases to 60–70% over 15 years. Counterintuitive but research-backed: it reduces sequence-of-returns risk in the dangerous early-retirement years while maintaining long-term growth. Model your allocation path here.
What Is the Rising Equity Glide Path?
The rising equity glide path inverts the traditional retirement allocation wisdom. Instead of progressively shifting to bonds as you age (the "age in bonds" rule), you START retirement at a low equity allocation (~30%) and gradually INCREASE to 60–70% over the first 10–15 years. Research by Michael Kitces and Wade Pfau (Journal of Financial Planning, 2014) demonstrated that this U-shaped allocation lowers the probability of portfolio failure compared to both static 60/40 and declining glide paths in poor return sequences. The mechanism: when early-retirement bonds protect against sequence risk during the most vulnerable years, then rising stocks capture late-retirement growth. Source: Pfau and Kitces (2014), "Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide Path." Last updated: May 2026.
2027 Sample Glide Path Allocation Schedule
| Retirement Year | Stocks % | Bonds % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (Age 65) | 30% | 70% |
| 5 (Age 69) | 40% | 60% |
| 10 (Age 74) | 52% | 48% |
| 15 (Age 79) | 65% | 35% |
| 20 (Age 84) | 65% | 35% |
| 30 (Age 94) | 65% | 35% |
Why It Beats Declining Glide Paths in Poor Sequences
Traditional retirement allocations decline equity (the "100 minus age" or target-date fund approach). The problem: this puts maximum bond allocation at age 90+ when sequence risk has already passed. Rising glide allocates protection where it matters — the first 10 years of retirement, when a 30% market drop combined with 4% withdrawals can devastate the portfolio (sequence-of-returns risk). After year 10, the worst sequence danger is behind you, and rising stocks capture growth to fund the remaining 20+ years. Backtested across historical sequences from 1871–2013, rising glide paths reduced portfolio failure rates by 15–25% in poor-return cohorts.
Rising Glide vs Bond Tent: Two Variants of the Same Idea
The rising-equity glide path is sometimes confused with the "bond tent" strategy (also Kitces). Bond tent: ramp UP bond allocation in the 5 years BEFORE retirement, then ramp DOWN once retired. Rising glide: low equity at retirement, rising over 15 years. Both protect against the "fragile decade" around retirement start. Bond tent is built during accumulation; rising glide operates in decumulation. They can be combined — bond tent peaks at 70% bonds in year 0, then rising glide takes over to drop bonds back to 35% by year 15. This combined approach is the most defensive sequence-risk strategy in modern retirement research.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the rising equity glide path?
A retirement allocation strategy that starts at low equity (~30%) and rises to 60-70% over 10-15 years. Developed by Wade Pfau and Michael Kitces in 2014, it reduces sequence-of-returns risk in the critical early retirement years while capturing long-term equity growth. Source: Journal of Financial Planning 2014.
Why start retirement at only 30% stocks?
Sequence-of-returns risk peaks in the first 10 years of retirement. A 30% stock allocation provides bond buffer that absorbs market drops while you're withdrawing. Without this buffer, a 2008-style crash in retirement year 2 can permanently damage your withdrawal trajectory.
How does it compare to a static 60/40 portfolio?
In backtests across 1871-2013, the rising glide path outperformed static 60/40 in poor return sequences (10th percentile cohorts) and roughly matched it in median sequences. Static 60/40 outperformed in strong-return sequences but the upside is less valuable than the downside protection.
Is the rising glide better than a bond tent?
They solve the same problem (sequence risk) at different times. Bond tent ramps bond allocation up in the 5 years BEFORE retirement, peaks at retirement, then ramps back down. Rising glide starts low equity at retirement and rises. The optimal strategy combines both — accumulating bonds before retirement (bond tent), then rising equity in decumulation (rising glide).
Should I follow rising glide if I retire in a market downturn?
Yes — this is exactly when it helps most. If markets are down at retirement start, you're at peak vulnerability and the 30% equity floor protects you. As markets recover, your gradual increase to 60-70% captures the rebound. Avoiding this strategy in down markets is the opposite of what the research recommends.