Bond Tent Glide Path Calculator
A bond tent shifts your asset allocation more conservative as you approach retirement (e.g., 60/40 → 40/60), then back to more equity post-retirement (40/60 → 60/40 over 10 years). This protects against sequence-of-returns risk in the danger zone around retirement day.
Why Timing Of Returns Matters
Two retirees both average 7% over 30 years and withdraw $40K/year. Retiree A has -30% in year 1 then averages 7%. Retiree B averages 7% then has -30% in year 29. Retiree A often runs out of money; Retiree B finishes with seven figures. The arithmetic of selling investments at low prices to fund withdrawals is the killer.
Mitigations That Actually Work
(1) Cash bucket: hold 2-3 years of expenses in cash and short bonds — never sell stocks at a loss. (2) Bond tent: increase bond allocation 5 years before retirement, decrease bond allocation in early retirement years. (3) Guyton-Klinger guardrails: cut withdrawals 10% after a 25% drawdown. (4) Delay Social Security to 70 — guaranteed inflation-adjusted income reduces portfolio reliance.
What Doesn't Work
Trying to time markets to avoid the drawdown. Decades of research show retail investors miss the recovery. Switching to all-bonds reduces sequence risk but introduces longevity risk — bonds underperform inflation over 30 years.
Source: Wade Pfau Retirement Income journal, Michael Kitces Nerd's Eye View, Bengen original SAFEMAX paper. Last updated: May 2026.