Sequence of Returns Risk Calculator 2027
Calculate sequence-of-returns risk on retirement portfolio 2027 — bad early returns can deplete portfolio years sooner than expected, even with same average return.
Sequence Risk Defined
Two portfolios with same AVG return can have wildly different outcomes if bad years come early vs late. Bad early + withdrawals = forced to sell low = compounds bad.
Why First 10 Years Critical
Early bear market drops portfolio AND you withdraw — compounds. Late bear (year 25): you've grown so much, drawdown less impactful.
Cash Buffer Strategy
Hold 2-3 years of withdrawals in cash/bonds. When stocks crash, withdraw from cash. Refill when stocks recover. Avoids selling at lows.
Dynamic Withdrawal
Guyton-Klinger guardrails: reduce 10% when portfolio drops 20%. Raise 10% when portfolio jumps 20%. Smooths sequence risk dramatically.
Source: Trinity Study 1998, ERN.com Big Ern SWR research. Last updated: May 2026.