Treasury Bond vs TIP Ladder
Treasury ladder: nominal yields, inflation risk. TIPS ladder: real yield + CPI adjustment. TIPS wins if inflation > breakeven (5-yr ~2.5%).
| Investment | — |
| Nominal yield | — |
| TIPS real yield | — |
| Your inflation forecast | — |
| Breakeven inflation | — |
| Nominal FV (10yr) | — |
| TIPS FV (10yr) | — |
| Difference | — |
| Winner | — |
Nominal Treasury bonds offer fixed coupon at known yield. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) offer real yield (after inflation) plus CPI adjustment. TIPS wins when actual inflation exceeds the market's 'breakeven inflation rate'.
Breakeven Inflation Calculation
Breakeven inflation = Nominal Treasury yield − TIPS real yield. Currently ~2.5% for 10-year. If you expect inflation HIGHER than breakeven, TIPS wins. Lower, nominal wins. Market consensus is built into the spread.
Tax Treatment Difference
Nominal: interest taxed as ordinary income annually. TIPS: principal adjustment is 'phantom income' — taxable yearly even though not received until maturity. Hold TIPS in tax-deferred accounts (IRA, 401k) to avoid phantom income tax.
Portfolio Allocation Strategy
Conservative inflation protection: 30-50% TIPS / 50-70% nominal Treasury. Inflation hawk: heavier TIPS allocation. Deflation hedge: heavier nominal. Or simply ladder 50/50 — average outcome.
Last updated May 2026. Sources: Treasury TIPS.