Northern Lights Tonight — Aurora Forecast

How the Northern Lights Forecast Works

The northern lights, or aurora borealis, are caused by charged particles from the sun colliding with gases in Earth's atmosphere. When solar wind interacts with the magnetosphere, it channels energy toward the polar regions, exciting atmospheric molecules and producing the spectacular light displays. This tool uses your chosen location's latitude and the date to simulate KP index values and estimate your probability of seeing the aurora. Higher latitudes and darker winter months dramatically increase your chances, while summer's midnight sun makes sightings impossible at Arctic latitudes.

Best Locations to See Northern Lights

The aurora oval — the ring-shaped zone where auroras are most frequent — sits roughly between 65 and 72 degrees north latitude. Locations like Tromso, Abisko, and Murmansk sit directly under this oval, giving them the highest frequency of clear displays. Fairbanks and Yellowknife are also excellent choices in North America. Further south, cities like Edinburgh and Portland can see auroras during strong geomagnetic storms (KP 7 or higher), but sightings are rare and require very dark skies away from city lights. For the best experience, choose a location with minimal light pollution and clear horizons facing north.

KP Index Explained

The KP index is a scale from 0 to 9 that measures global geomagnetic disturbance. A KP of 0 to 1 means quiet conditions with aurora visible only at very high latitudes. KP 3 to 4 is moderate activity with good chances for locations within the aurora oval. KP 5 or above indicates a geomagnetic storm, pushing the aurora further south and making it visible from mid-latitudes. KP 7 or higher is a strong storm where even cities like London, Hamburg, or Seattle might catch a glimpse. This tool simulates KP values based on seasonal patterns — equinox months (September, October, February, March) tend to have stronger geomagnetic activity due to the Russell-McPherron effect.

Best Months for Aurora Viewing

The best months to see the northern lights are September through March, when nights at high latitudes are long and dark. Peak seasons are the equinox months — September and October in autumn, and February and March in spring — when geomagnetic activity tends to be strongest. December and January offer the longest nights but can bring heavy cloud cover in coastal locations. From May through July, the midnight sun makes aurora viewing impossible at Arctic latitudes, even if geomagnetic activity is high. Shoulder months like April and August can occasionally produce sightings when storms are strong enough.

Tips for Photographing the Northern Lights

Capturing the aurora on camera requires a few key settings. Use a tripod and a wide-angle lens set to its widest aperture (f/2.8 or lower). Set your ISO between 1600 and 3200, and start with 10 to 15 second exposures — adjust based on how fast the aurora is moving. Faster-moving displays need shorter exposures to avoid blur. Focus manually on a bright star or distant light, as autofocus struggles in darkness. Shoot in RAW format for maximum editing flexibility later. Bring extra batteries — cold temperatures drain them quickly. Most importantly, arrive early, let your eyes adjust to the dark for 20 minutes, and face north with an unobstructed horizon.