Safe Withdrawal Rate Trinity Study 2027 Calculator

Calculate sustainable withdrawal rate 2027 using Trinity Study + Big Ern updates — see 4% / 3.5% / 3.25% success rates by allocation + horizon.

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Trinity Study Origin

Three Trinity finance profs (1998). Used 1926-1995 returns. Found 4% initial withdrawal (inflation-adjusted) survived 30 years in 95%+ of historical periods.

ERN's 50-Year Update

Big Ern (early-retiree blogger) extended to 50+ years. 4% safety drops to 60-80%. Recommends 3.25-3.5% for indefinite retirement.

Stock Allocation Impact

100% stocks: highest success but most volatile. 75/25: best risk-adjusted. 50/50: more conservative but lower success past 30 yr.

Dynamic Withdrawal Solution

Cut 10% in bad years. Raise 5% in good years. Allows starting at 4% instead of 3.25%. Doubles sustainable wealth in many scenarios.

Source: Trinity Study 1998, ERN.com SWR Series, vanguard.com retirement research. Last updated: May 2026.