Safe Withdrawal Rate Trinity Study 2027 Calculator
Calculate sustainable withdrawal rate 2027 using Trinity Study + Big Ern updates — see 4% / 3.5% / 3.25% success rates by allocation + horizon.
Trinity Study Origin
Three Trinity finance profs (1998). Used 1926-1995 returns. Found 4% initial withdrawal (inflation-adjusted) survived 30 years in 95%+ of historical periods.
ERN's 50-Year Update
Big Ern (early-retiree blogger) extended to 50+ years. 4% safety drops to 60-80%. Recommends 3.25-3.5% for indefinite retirement.
Stock Allocation Impact
100% stocks: highest success but most volatile. 75/25: best risk-adjusted. 50/50: more conservative but lower success past 30 yr.
Dynamic Withdrawal Solution
Cut 10% in bad years. Raise 5% in good years. Allows starting at 4% instead of 3.25%. Doubles sustainable wealth in many scenarios.
Source: Trinity Study 1998, ERN.com SWR Series, vanguard.com retirement research. Last updated: May 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is SWR different in 2026?
CAPE ratio high (32+). Some research suggests start SWR 3.5% in high-valuation periods. Others say diversification fixes.
Social Security in SWR?
Subtract SS from spending need. If you need $60k and get $30k SS, only $30k from portfolio. Lowers required portfolio dramatically.
International stocks help?
Diversification helps but doesn't dramatically change SWR. 30% intl in 70/30 stock split typical. Don't chase intl yield.