US Social Security COLA 2028 Projection Calculator
SSA announces COLA in October based on CPI-W from Q3 of prior year. Project the 2028 COLA from current CPI-W trajectory and see your post-increase benefit.
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The Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) is announced each October by SSA, based on the change in CPI-W from Q3 of the previous year to Q3 of the announcement year. The COLA takes effect January 1. Historical context: 2025 COLA was 2.5%, 2024 was 3.2%, 2023 was 8.7%. 2028 will be announced ~9 October 2027.
How COLA Is Calculated
Formula: ((Q3 average CPI-W current year - Q3 average prior year) / Q3 prior year) × 100. CPI-W = Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (subset of CPI-U). BLS publishes monthly; SSA averages Jul-Sep. If sum is negative, COLA = 0%.
What COLA Applies To
Retirement benefits, disability (SSDI), survivors, SSI federal rate. NOT applied to Medicare premiums or Part D — those have their own adjustments. COLA also adjusts taxable wage base (2025: $168,600 → 2026: ~$175K projected) and quarter-of-coverage threshold.
2028 COLA Projection
Trustees' Report projects 2.4-2.7% long-term COLAs. Current Fed inflation target 2%. Recent: 2026 = 2.5%, 2027 projected 2.7-3.0%. 2028 likely 2.5-3.0% absent major inflation shock. Energy, food, and rent components drive variance.
Tax Impact of COLA
Higher SS benefit may push more into provisional income brackets (50% or 85% of benefit taxed). Federal max SS taxation = 85%. State varies — 13 states tax SS to some degree. Plan QCDs or tax-loss harvesting in COLA years to offset.
Last updated May 2026. Sources: SSA Cost-of-Living Adjustment, BLS CPI-W Data.